Why Growth, Not Aid, Should Be the New Africa Strategy

Reflections on a recent conversation with Ken Opalo

Ken Opalo and I, back when we were bright young things in Nairobi, circa early 2000s

If you’ve been in the DC development bubble lately, you’ve likely felt the shock of a system under siege—entire agencies dismantled, budgets slashed, and the very real unraveling of decades of work in global health, humanitarian relief, and the broader architecture of international development. The upheaval is real, and for many, it’s personal—jobs, livelihoods, and deeply held purpose are on the line. But on the ground in Africa, the conversation is strikingly different. The stakes are still high, but the focus is shifting—to jobs, growth, and agency.

That contrast was front and center in our recent conversation with Ken Opalo on the High Energy Planet podcast. Ken is one of the clearest, boldest voices on African development today—equal parts hard-truth dispenser, sharp analyst, and unapologetic hype man for the continent’s potential. I’ve known Ken since we were teenagers in Nairobi, and talking with him felt like catching up with an old friend while also peering through a more honest, unflinching lens on Africa’s future.

Here are four takeaways that stuck with me:

1. Growth, not aid, is the goal.
Washington still sees Africa through the lens of humanitarian crisis— famine, disease, conflict. But on the ground, conversations are largely focused on jobs, infrastructure, growth. Yes, public health matters—and we can’t let the bottom fall out—but Ken argues (and I agree) that the center of gravity should shift toward long-term economic growth.

Why? Because DC’s bandwidth for Africa is limited. If we’re going to do fewer things, let’s focus on what matters most for the continent’s future. Growth is what African governments are prioritizing. It’s what allows countries to gradually replace donor funding with domestic revenue, as we’ve seen in places like Kenya. And it’s what creates the conditions for self-reliance—not just survival.

Critically, this moment of transition is also a wake-up call. If donors step back, governments will have to step up. That’s not a disaster—it’s a correction. For too long, external actors have done what states should have been doing themselves. The goal isn’t to abandon aid, but to reorient it toward enabling that shift.

2. Donor systems matter more than donor money

Even in countries where dependence on aid has been shrinking, the infrastructure behind service delivery—disease surveillance, supply chains, program logistics—remains deeply donor-dependent. The money may be local, but foreign inputs are still essential to how the system runs. These delivery chains often rely on small but critical supports: a donor-funded data officer, training programs, vehicle fleets, or fuel logistics tied to donor projects.

If donors pull out too fast, the whole machine can seize up. The transition to local control must happen. But if we treat systems as an afterthought, we risk unraveling decades of progress. Managing this shift with care is just as urgent as deciding how much money stays on the table.

3. Align with elite incentives—or prepare to fail.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: Africa’s political elites aren’t going anywhere. They’re not a bug in the system—they are the system. So if your grand strategy for growth or reform hinges on them suddenly becoming altruistic visionaries, good luck.

Ken argues that elites everywhere—whether in the U.S., China, or Kenya—respond to incentives. When growth aligns with their political survival or business interests, they get on board. When it threatens their control, they resist or, more often, go through the motions without real commitment.

But there’s a deeper problem too: a pervasive failure of elite coordination and ambition. As Ken writes, many African elites have outsourced their countries’ development goals to outsiders—multilateral banks, donor agencies, “best practices”—instead of defining bold, homegrown visions for the future. The result? Low ceilings for progress, constant crisis management, and a continent stuck implementing someone else’s agenda.

Instead of designing reforms that assume elites will act against their own interests, we need to outsmart the status quo—crafting strategies that make real change align with elite incentives. And we need to raise the bar for what ambition looks like on African terms. In other words: don’t try to go around the elites. Build a growth agenda that brings them along for the ride.

4. We need more Opalos.
Ken and I are products of a particular moment in Nairobi’s history when access to elite networks wasn’t completely gated by wealth. We both came up through Kenya’s national school system that drew top students from every corner of the country—an imperfect meritocratic system but powerful in its ability to catapult kids with sharp minds and limited means into elite intellectual and professional networks. That ecosystem helped launch us both from Nairobi to top U.S. universities and into public life.

That path feels harder now. Today’s Nairobi is bigger, brasher, and more global—but also more gated. Elite networks are increasingly shaped by wealth, private education, and global exposure.

This narrowing pipeline has long weighed on me. It’s part of what drove me to co-found the Mawazo Institute, which provides doctoral funding, mentorship, and professional development to brilliant African women, most of whom are self-funding their PhDs, juggling caregiving responsibilities, and navigating academia without the networks or guidance they deserve.

Ken and I agree: one of the most underrated challenges—and opportunities—of our time is cultivating the next generation of African thinkers and public intellectuals. With the old development order unraveling, this work feels more urgent than ever. We can’t keep outsourcing ideas. We need thousands more Opalos—thinking, debating, and shaping African futures on African terms.

This is the challenge of my career. And later this month, I’ll be launching a new venture to help take it on. Stay tuned.

You can listen to the full episode here. And if it resonates, I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Let’s keep the conversation going.